Comentário Diário | 18/07/2019
AUD firms after soft employment data
Australia’s employment data for June came out and were characterised as quite soft. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.2%, while the employment change figure dropped to a merely 0.5k. Never the less, analysts pointed out that the data may be soft yet the picture of the Australian market provided may not be dramatic enough for the RBA to provide further stimulus yet. The AUD experienced a slight positive effect, rising over the USD around 20 pips upon release. We could see the AUS/USD maintaining a sideways motion for the time being, however bullish tendencies could occur as a possible rate cut by the RBA seems to be postponed. AUD/USD bounced on the 0.7000 (S1) support line and maintained bullish tendencies especially after the release of the Australian employment data for June as another uncertainty was lifted from the AUD. We expect the AUD to maintain a sideways movement in the next days. It should be noted that there are indications of an upward trendline starting to form, yet, we would require more higher troughs and higher peaks, before switching in favour of a bullish bias. Should the bulls dictate the pair’s direction, we could see the pair breaking the 0.7065 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 0.7115 (R2) resistance barrier. Should the bears take over, we could see the pair breaking the 0.7000 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.6925 (S2) support hurdle.
Bitcoin stabilises above 9350
Prices of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies stabilized yesterday at some point showed even some bullish tendencies. The cryptocurrency’s price action occurred despite US lawmakers grilling Facebook’s crypto executive David Marcus. It was characteristic that US lawmakers asked for Facebook to agree to a moratorium before the issuing of Libra, so that the necessary regulations are enforced, yet Facebook’s executive did not respond clearly. However it’s not only the US authorities that are worried about Libra. The G7 meeting seems also to be in favor of regulatory problems being addressed first before Libra is launched. It was characteristic that the French finance minister stated that “the sovereignty of nations cannot be jeopardized”, according to media. We expect Bitcoin to remain under pressure, yet we tend to note that the cryptocurrency seems to have settled around the same flats when the whole story with Libra began mid-June. Bitcoin failed to clearly break the 9350 (S1) support line, practically bouncing on it. It should be noted that the price action has reached an almost 1 month low yesterday. We expect the cryptocurrency to maintain a sideways movement in the next days. It should be noted that there are indications of an upward trendline starting to form, yet, we would require more higher troughs and higher peaks, before switching in favour of a bullish bias. Should bitcoin come under the selling interest of the market, we could see it breaking the 9350 (S1) support line and aim for the 9680 (S2) support level. Should the cryptocurrencies long positions be favored, we could see Bitcoin’s price action breaking the 10200 (R1) resistance lines, in search for higher grounds.
Other economic highlights, today and early tomorrow
Today, during the European session, we get UK’s retail sales growth rates for June, while in the American session, we get from the US the Phille Fed Business Index for July. In tomorrow’s Asian session, Japan’s inflation rates are to be released. As for speakers Atlanta Fed president Bostic and NY Fed president Williams are scheduled to speak.
• Support: 0.7000 (S1), 0.6925 (S2), 0.6860 (S3)
• Resistance: 0.7065 (R1), 0.7115 (R2), 0.7165 (R3)
• Support: 9350 (S1), 8680 (S2), 8070 (S3)
• Resistance: 10200 (R1), 11000 (R2), 11580 (R3)