Daily Commentary | 28/12/2018
ECB Economic Bulletin provides forecasts for 2019
According to ECB, the global economy is heading towards a slowdown in 2019 and could stabilize afterwards. The ECB also stated that inflation pressures could persist, globally but also in the Eurozone. More specifically it was said inflation is expected to increase slowly due to ECB’s monetary policy measures, the ongoing economic growth and rising wages. It was emphasized that they could see ongoing expansion in the economy but followed up by increased downside risks. Further developments on the pre mentioned news could create volatility for the EUR. EURUSD moved higher yesterday breaking consecutively the 1.1385 (S2) support level and the 1.1425 (S1) support level. During today’s Asian morning EURUSD moved even higher aiming for the 1.1465 (R1) resistance level but was unsuccessful in breaching it. The movement could be due to the weakening of the USD. If the soaring continues, then we may see the common currency breaking the 1.1465 (R1) resistance level and aim for higher grounds, with the next level being our 1.1500 (R2) resistance level. On the contrary, if the major currency is to correct on the downside, then we may see a movement towards our 1.1425 (S1) support level which could even be breached. If the bearish movement persists then we could see it moving even lower for the 1.1385 (S2) support line. The financial news to be released today regarding Germany’s Inflation data could weaken the EUR according to their forecasts.
Oil prices drop on mixed fundamental data
A variety of fundamental news regarding the Oil market could have created an indecisive sentiment for Oil prices, despite the drop yesterday. Iran, which faces U.S. sanctions on its oil exports, said it continues its business with private exporters who had "no problems" selling its oil, indicating supply is still in place. On the other hand, Russia Energy minister said Oil prices could stabilize in the starting months of 2019. Furthermore, Iraq's energy minister made it clear that the OPEC plus group could set up an additional meeting, if the arranged production cuts don’t have the required effect on Oil prices. Further developments on the OPEC plus front could create volatility for WTI. Yesterday, WTI lost 3.5% of value and corrected lower after the upward trend it had formed in the previous days. WTI was caught in a bearish movement but remained it a sideways motion between our 47.35 (R1) resistance level and the 45.30 (S1) support level. It must be noted that, most of WTI’s movement in the previous 10 days has been between the pre mentioned levels and the levels could considered as a make or break price range. If the commodity is undertaken by a bullish momentum we could see it moving towards the 47.35 (R1) resistance level and aim even higher aiming for the 49.40 (R2) resistance level. On the other hand, if a bearish movement prevails then we could see WTI break below our 45.30 (S1) support level and head towards the 43.60 (S2) support barrier.
In today’s other economic highlights:
In today’s European afternoon, we get the Germany’s inflation data which could create volatility for EUR pairs. In a quiet American session, we get from the US the Baker Hugh’s weekly Oil rig count which could move Oil prices. From all of us here at IronFX we would like to wish you solid trading and best wishes for happy holidays.
• Support: 1.1425 (S1), 1.1385 (S2), 1.1345 (S3)
•Resistance: 1.1465 (R1), 1.1500 (R2), 1.1550 (R3)
• Support: 45.30 (S1), 43.60 (S2), 41.82 (S3)
•Resistance: 47.35 (R1), 49.40 (R2), 52.10 (R3)