The greenback maintained its strength, despite the thin trading since Friday, supported by the relative good shape of the US economy. It should be noted that also a slight gradual rise of the US 10 year bond yield may have boosted the USD. As against the EUR, the analysts point out that it may be the case that the EUR is weak rather than the USD is strong. Also it should be noted that traders may have already priced in the weakness displayed by Eurozone’s economy. We could see some volatility around the USD today as there will be some US financial releases, amid the holiday period in Europe. EUR/USD maintained a sideways movement yesterday between the 1.1220 (S1) support line and the 1.1260 (R1) resistance line. We could see the pair maintaining a sideways movement today, yet should thin trading be present once again today, there could be some surprises. Should the pair find some buying orders along its path, we could see the pair breaking the 1.1260 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.1300 (R2) resistance level. Should the pair come under the selling interest of the market, we could see the pair breaking the 1.1220 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.1175 (S2) support barrier. Please be advised that the 1.1175 (S2) is the lowest level the pair has reached in over 1 and a half years.

Oil prices rally as US ends Iran import sanction waivers.

Oil prices rose by more than 2.5%, during today’s Asian session, marking a year high record. The surge seems to have been caused by a report confirming that the US is set to announce that all imports of Iranian oil must end. Such a decision would imply that the waivers granted to eight buyers of Iranian oil, will be revoked. Major economies which are expected to be hit, include India, China and South Korea. US foreign minister Mike Pompeo is expected to announce that as of May 2, the State department will no longer grand sanctions waivers to any country importing Iranian oil. Please note that the news come, as the oil market is considered to be already tight. WTI prices rallied during today’s Asian session, breaking the 65.30 (S1) resistance line (now turned to support). We could see WTI prices taking a breather, yet there could be some bullish tendencies in the cards, especially should the fundamentals show tendencies for the oil market to tighten even further. On the flip side it should be noted that the RSI indicator in the 4 hour chart, touched the reading of 70, implying that WTI long positions could start getting a bit overcrowded. Should the bulls actually take charge of the commodity’s direction, we could see it breaking the 66.50 (R1) resistance line and aim for even higher grounds. On the other hand, should the bears take over, we could see WTI prices, breaking the 65.30 (S1) support line and aim for the 63.80 (S2) support barrier.

Other economic highlights, today and early tomorrow

It could be a slow Monday today, as a number of markets will be closed for the Easter holidays. Please note though, that from the US, the release of the existing home sales figure for March, seems to be standing out.

As for the rest of the week:

On Tuesday, we get Eurozone’s consumer Confidence for April. On Wednesday, we get Australia’s CPI rate for Q1, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate for April, and Canada’s BoC interest rate decision. On Friday, from Japan we get the Unemployment rate, the Industrial production growth rate and retail sales growth rate, all for March, as well as Australia’s PPI rate for Q1 and the US GDP growth rate for Q1.

EUR/USD H4

• Support: 1.1220 (S1), 1.1175 (S2), 1.1125 (S3)
•Resistance: 1.1260 (R1), 1.1300 (R2), 1.1340 (R3)

WTI H4

• Support: 65.30 (S1), 63.80 (S2), 62.00 (S3)
•Resistance: 66.50 (R1), 68.00 (R2), 69.70 (R3)